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First Public Poll Shows Tuck Well Ahead of Thurmond



Tony Thurmond/Marshall Tuck
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We’re in the final days before the election. And, one of the last polls shows separation among candidates for statewide offices and the U.S. Senate.
The final Berkeley IGS poll indicates dominant leads in the gubernatorial, state superintendent of public instruction, and Senate races. Also, propositions to repeal the gas tax and the law limiting rent control appear headed to defeat.

Photo of GV Wire's David Taub
Politics 101
David Taub
For governor, Democrat Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom leads Republican businessman John Cox, 58%-40%. Both men have hyper-partisan support — 92% of Democrats favor Newsom while 93% of Republicans favor Cox.
What does Cox think of his chances? His tweet may say it all:

In a battle of two Democrats, incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein leads challenger Kevin de León, 45%-36%. What do Republicans think about this match-up? A plurality, 43%, say they will sit this one out. Other GOP voters favor de León, 34%-23%.
In one of the most expensive statewide races, Marshall Tuck leads Tony Thurmond by 12 percentage points for state superintendent, 48%-36%. According to EdSource’s Louis Freedberg, this is the first public poll on the general election race. EdSource also reports that spending in the race has reached $50 million, with Tuck enjoying a nearly 2-to-1 edge.
Other poll findings:
— Eleni Kounalakis leads Ed Hernandez, 45%-31%, for lieutenant governor. Both are Democrats. You can view their CALmatters video face-off at this link.
— Steve Poizner (no party preference) leads Democrat Ricardo Lara 49%-44% for insurance commissioner;
— Proposition 6, which would repeal the gas tax, trails 56%-40%. Once again, this seems to be a partisan issue. Republicans favor repeal (a “yes” vote), 80%-19% while Democrats oppose (a “no” vote), 77%-17%.
— Proposition 10, the measure that would allow local jurisdictions more leeway to set rent control, trails 60%-35%.
Likely voters were randomly selected by Political Data, Inc., and interviewed Oct. 19-25. The poll has a sampling error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
Full results can be seen here.

Ballot Count

The latest update from the Fresno County elections office shows 55,707 ballots turned in through Oct. 30 via mail or in person.
For comparison:

Year Voter turnout Mail-in Ballots Absentee ballot percentage of turnout
2014 163,420 (39%) 98,519 60%
2016 291,890 (67%) 160,103 55%

Water Moratorium

The Fresno City Council meets Thursday in a special meeting to discuss a single subject: a water fine moratorium.
Councilmen Steve Brandau and Garry Bredefeld are behind the effort to put a halt on residential fines for overwatering. The city went to an automated model of detecting usage instead of visually observing watering this past summer. The roll out caused so much confusion that the council will weigh a pause on fines.
Other council members polled by GV Wire indicated the moratorium will pass.

Did de León Hurt His Fresno Vote?

Kevin de León issued a news release about an event at the “nation’s best taco stand.” Alas, the U.S. Senate hopeful is not stopping in Fresno, but at Ave 26 Tacos in Los Angeles.
That might be an ouch for Fresnans, who love to brag about local tacos nearly as much they love to eat them.

David Taub has spent most of his career in journalism behind the scenes working as a TV assignment editor and radio producer. For more than a decade, he has worked in the Fresno market with such stops at KSEE-24, KMJ and Power Talk 96.7. Taub also worked the production and support side of some of TV sports biggest events including the Super Bowl, the NBA Finals and NASCAR to name a few. Taub graduated from the University of Michigan with dual degrees in communications and political science. You can contact David at 559-492-4037 or at Send an Email