First Public Poll Shows Tuck Well Ahead of Thurmond - GV Wire - Explore. Explain. Expose
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First Public Poll Shows Tuck Well Ahead of Thurmond



Tony Thurmond/Marshall Tuck
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We’re in the final days before the election. And, one of the last polls shows separation among candidates for statewide offices and the U.S. Senate.
The final Berkeley IGS poll indicates dominant leads in the gubernatorial, state superintendent of public instruction, and Senate races. Also, propositions to repeal the gas tax and the law limiting rent control appear headed to defeat.

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Politics 101
David Taub
For governor, Democrat Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom leads Republican businessman John Cox, 58%-40%. Both men have hyper-partisan support — 92% of Democrats favor Newsom while 93% of Republicans favor Cox.
What does Cox think of his chances? His tweet may say it all:

In a battle of two Democrats, incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein leads challenger Kevin de León, 45%-36%. What do Republicans think about this match-up? A plurality, 43%, say they will sit this one out. Other GOP voters favor de León, 34%-23%.
In one of the most expensive statewide races, Marshall Tuck leads Tony Thurmond by 12 percentage points for state superintendent, 48%-36%. According to EdSource’s Louis Freedberg, this is the first public poll on the general election race. EdSource also reports that spending in the race has reached $50 million, with Tuck enjoying a nearly 2-to-1 edge.
Other poll findings:
— Eleni Kounalakis leads Ed Hernandez, 45%-31%, for lieutenant governor. Both are Democrats. You can view their CALmatters video face-off at this link.
— Steve Poizner (no party preference) leads Democrat Ricardo Lara 49%-44% for insurance commissioner;
— Proposition 6, which would repeal the gas tax, trails 56%-40%. Once again, this seems to be a partisan issue. Republicans favor repeal (a “yes” vote), 80%-19% while Democrats oppose (a “no” vote), 77%-17%.
— Proposition 10, the measure that would allow local jurisdictions more leeway to set rent control, trails 60%-35%.
Likely voters were randomly selected by Political Data, Inc., and interviewed Oct. 19-25. The poll has a sampling error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
Full results can be seen here.

Ballot Count

The latest update from the Fresno County elections office shows 55,707 ballots turned in through Oct. 30 via mail or in person.
For comparison:

Year Voter turnout Mail-in Ballots Absentee ballot percentage of turnout
2014 163,420 (39%) 98,519 60%
2016 291,890 (67%) 160,103 55%

Water Moratorium

The Fresno City Council meets Thursday in a special meeting to discuss a single subject: a water fine moratorium.
Councilmen Steve Brandau and Garry Bredefeld are behind the effort to put a halt on residential fines for overwatering. The city went to an automated model of detecting usage instead of visually observing watering this past summer. The roll out caused so much confusion that the council will weigh a pause on fines.
Other council members polled by GV Wire indicated the moratorium will pass.

Did de León Hurt His Fresno Vote?

Kevin de León issued a news release about an event at the “nation’s best taco stand.” Alas, the U.S. Senate hopeful is not stopping in Fresno, but at Ave 26 Tacos in Los Angeles.
That might be an ouch for Fresnans, who love to brag about local tacos nearly as much they love to eat them.

Curiosity drives David Taub. The award-winning journalist might be shy, but feels mighty with a recorder in his hand. He doesn't see it his job to "hold public officials accountable," but does see it to provide readers (and voters) the information needed to make intelligent choices. Taub has been honored with several writing awards from the California News Publishers Association. He's just happy to have his stories read. Joining GV Wire in 2016, Taub covers politics, government and elections, mainly in the Fresno/Clovis area. He also writes columns about local eateries (Appetite for Fresno), pro wrestling (Off the Bottom Rope), and media (Media Man). Prior to joining the online news source, Taub worked as a radio producer for KMJ and PowerTalk 96.7 in Fresno. He also worked as an assignment editor for KCOY-TV in Santa Maria, California, and KSEE-TV in Fresno. He has also worked behind the scenes for several sports broadcasts, including the NCAA basketball tournament, and the Super Bowl. When not spending time with his family, Taub loves to officially score Fresno Grizzlies games. Growing up in the San Francisco Bay Area, Taub is a die-hard Giants and 49ers fan. He graduated from the University of Michigan with dual degrees in communications and political science. Go Blue! You can contact David at 559-492-4037 or at Send an Email