Ukrainian authorities are growing increasingly concerned about the potential for a significant Russian breakthrough by summer — including the fall of Kyiv — unless their allies can step up ammunition supplies.

The situation on the ground is becoming more dire as Ukrainian forces attempt to fend off Russian attacks with limited resources.

Challenges in Ukraine’s Defense

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi acknowledged that errors by frontline commanders have exacerbated the challenges facing Ukraine’s defenses, particularly around Avdiivka, which fell to Russian forces recently. In response, Syrskyi has deployed additional troops and ammunition to strengthen Ukrainian positions.

The fall of Avdiivka and several nearby villages has heightened fears that Kyiv’s defenses may not withstand the Russian onslaught. This has prompted calls for Ukraine’s allies to take more decisive action.

Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his initial objective of capturing major cities, including the capital, Kyiv, and Odesa. If Russian forces were to reach Odesa, they could potentially disrupt Ukraine’s vital grain export routes via the Black Sea and gain access to Moldova.

Warnings from Ukrainian President

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned that ammunition shortages are impacting the battlefield situation and that Russia is likely planning a new offensive in the spring or early summer.

Despite the challenges, a major offensive would still pose significant difficulties for Russia, given the depletion of its forces after two years of war.

NATO’s military committee chairman, Admiral Rob Bauer, noted that Russia would need a substantial increase in soldiers, heavy tanks, and vehicles to launch an offensive, something it has so far been unable to achieve.

Read more at Bloomberg.