Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

1 day ago

Trump Says He’s Willing to Let Migrant Farm Laborers Stay in US

1 day ago

US Electric Vehicle Tax Breaks Will Expire on Sept. 30

2 days ago

Eyeing Arctic Dominance, Trump Bill Earmarks $8.6 Billion for US Coast Guard Icebreakers

2 days ago

Trump’s Sweeping Tax-Cut and Spending Bill Wins Congressional Approval

2 days ago

Americans Celebrate Their Independence With Record-Breaking Travel Numbers

2 days ago

US Supreme Court to Decide Legality of Transgender School Sports Bans

2 days ago

Nvidia Set to Become the World’s Most Valuable Company in History

2 days ago

Poll: 41% in US ‘Extremely Proud’ to Be American, Near Historic Low

2 days ago
2 Million in Times Square for New Year's? No Way, Experts Say
By admin
Published 7 years ago on
January 1, 2019

Share

NEW YORK — Ryan Seacrest and Anderson Cooper will be there. Snoop Dogg, too.
But 1 or 2 million people in New York’s Times Square for New Year’s Eve? As Snoop would say, you must be sippin’ on gin and juice.
Crowd-size experts scoff at those mammoth figures — floated annually by city officials and event organizers — saying it’s impossible to squeeze that many of even the skinniest revelers into such a relatively small space.
The real Times Square ball drop crowd likely has fewer than 100,000 people, crowd science professor G. Keith Still said.

True Count Significantly Less

“Generally, people are overestimating crowd sizes by 10- to 100-fold,” said Still, who teaches crowd science at Manchester Metropolitan University in England and trains police departments on techniques to calculate crowd sizes.

To actually fit 1 million revelers, the city would have to jam more than the equivalent of a sold-out Yankee Stadium on every block of 7th Avenue between Times Square and Central Park — which starts about 15 blocks to the north.
The crowd estimates come from the New York City Police Department, according to the Times Square Alliance, which runs the ball drop.
In recent years, the department estimated that 2 million people had packed into Times Square. Mayor Bill de Blasio used a big number again Friday, saying the city expected “up to 2 million people in Times Square itself,” a bow-tie-shaped zone running five blocks between Broadway and 7th Avenue.
New York University professor Charles Seife, a mathematician and journalist who explored statistical manipulation in his book “Proofiness,” said the city has an interest in promoting a bigger number because it “helps cement the image of New York City as the center of the universe at a certain date and time.”

‘Fuzzy Math’ at Play

He suggested fuzzy math and fuzzier geography were also at play.
“How do you count a participant in the Times Square ball drop?” Seife asked. “Is it everyone who can see the ball, or anyone squeezed into a bar in Manhattan?”
To actually fit 1 million revelers, the city would have to jam more than the equivalent of a sold-out Yankee Stadium on every block of 7th Avenue between Times Square and Central Park — which starts about 15 blocks to the north.
Still and his colleagues perform detailed analyses when calculating precise crowd totals. But even using simple techniques, like measuring Times Square on a map and running a few calculations, it’s clear the numbers don’t get anywhere near 1 million.
Times Square would hold about 51,000 people at a density of 3 people per square meter (square yard), Still said, or about 86,000 at 5 people per square meter. It might reach 120,000 if the crowd packed in at 7 people per square meter, but he said that density, involving people squished together front-to-back and shoulder-to-shoulder, is unlikely.

New York — despite inflating the size of its crowd — manages the throngs well, funneling revelers into penned off areas, so there’s no opportunity for overcrowding.
Those numbers don’t count people watching from hotel and office building windows or from penned-off areas farther away. They also don’t account for space taken up by stages, security apparatus and egress routes, where people would otherwise be able to stand.

Crowd Estimate Has Evolved Over Years

New York’s crowd estimate has evolved over time. As late as 1998, the police department was estimating that roughly 500,000 people attended. But for the millennium bash at the close of 1999, Mayor Rudolph Giuliani predicted as many as 2 million.
At big events, an accurate crowd estimate is critical to public safety. The wrong number can leave cities devoting too many or too few resources to an event, Still said. But New York — despite inflating the size of its crowd — manages the throngs well, funneling revelers into penned off areas, so there’s no opportunity for overcrowding, and screening each person for weapons.
Police are planning for 65 such pens this year, stretching well north of Times Square proper. To get 1 million people into those 65 pens, each would have to fit around 30,800 people.

Political Pressure Plays Role

Estimating crowd sizes has long been subject to inexact guesswork and political pressure.
Arguments about crowd size flared after President Donald Trump claimed he had the largest presidential inauguration audience in history. The National Park Service stopped estimating crowds for events on the National Mall in Washington D.C. after a dispute with Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan over the attendance for his 1995 Million Man March.
Parades for victorious sports teams involve some of the most over-the-top estimates. Officials claimed 3.2 million people crammed the streets of Philadelphia for last year’s Eagles Super Bowl parade. The city’s mayor later conceded that the crowd was probably closer to 700,000.
And forget about a million people packing tiny Vatican City for Christmas, Easter or anything else.
“Unless they are 17 meters high, stacked on top of each other, shoulder to shoulder, you can’t get that many people in St. Peter’s Square,” Still said.

DON'T MISS

What Are Fresno Real Estate Experts Predicting for 2025 and Beyond?

DON'T MISS

First California EV Mandates Hit Automakers This Year. Most Are Not Even Close

DON'T MISS

How Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will Make China Great Again

DON'T MISS

What’s Caitlin Clark Worth to the WNBA? A Lot More Than Her $78,066 Salary.

DON'T MISS

Trump to Sign Tax-Cut and Spending Bill in July 4 Ceremony

DON'T MISS

Madre Fire Spurs Evacuations Across 3 Counties, Grows to More Than 70,000 Acres

DON'T MISS

Clovis, Sanger, Madera, and Bass Lake Will Light the Sky With Fireworks Shows Tonight

DON'T MISS

Oil Dips Ahead of Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

DON'T MISS

613 Killed at Gaza Aid Distribution Sites, Near Humanitarian Covoys, Says UN

DON'T MISS

Fresno County Authorities Investigating Suspicious Death of Transient Man

DON'T MISS

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

DON'T MISS

Israeli Military Kills 20 in Gaza as Trump Awaits Hamas Reply to Truce Proposal

UP NEXT

Americans Celebrate Their Independence With Record-Breaking Travel Numbers

UP NEXT

Poll: 41% in US ‘Extremely Proud’ to Be American, Near Historic Low

UP NEXT

Poorest Americans Dealt Biggest Blow Under Senate Republican Tax Package

UP NEXT

Poll: Most Americans Say National Divide, Political Violence Threaten Democracy

UP NEXT

Trump Pulls Back 150 Guard Troops From Federal Duties in California

UP NEXT

Suspect Identified in Ambush Shooting That Killed 2 Idaho Firefighters

UP NEXT

Suspect Identified in Ambush Shooting That Killed 2 Idaho Firefighters

UP NEXT

US Supreme Court Lets Parents Take Kids Out of Classes With LGBT Storybooks

UP NEXT

Bill Moyers, Broadcaster and LBJ’s White House Press Secretary, Dies at 91

UP NEXT

Tesla Executive, Elon Musk Confidant Leaves EV Maker, Bloomberg News Reports

Madre Fire Spurs Evacuations Across 3 Counties, Grows to More Than 70,000 Acres

1 day ago

Clovis, Sanger, Madera, and Bass Lake Will Light the Sky With Fireworks Shows Tonight

1 day ago

Oil Dips Ahead of Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

1 day ago

613 Killed at Gaza Aid Distribution Sites, Near Humanitarian Covoys, Says UN

1 day ago

Fresno County Authorities Investigating Suspicious Death of Transient Man

1 day ago

West Bank Town Becomes ‘Big Prison’ as Israel Fences It In

1 day ago

Israeli Military Kills 20 in Gaza as Trump Awaits Hamas Reply to Truce Proposal

1 day ago

Valley Crime Stoppers’ Most Wanted Person of the Day: Rachelle Maria Blanco

1 day ago

Russia Pounds Kyiv With Largest Drone Attack, Hours After Trump-Putin Call

1 day ago

Boxer Chavez Jr Expected to Be Deported to Mexico to Serve Sentence, Mexican President Says

1 day ago

How Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will Make China Great Again

Can you hear it — that loud roar coming from the East? It’s the sound of 1.4 billion Chinese laughing at us. Thomas L. Friedman The New Yo...

10 hours ago

Solar Farm in Riesel, Texas
10 hours ago

How Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will Make China Great Again

Caitlin Clark Signs T-Shirt
10 hours ago

What’s Caitlin Clark Worth to the WNBA? A Lot More Than Her $78,066 Salary.

President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 12, 2025. (Reuters File)
1 day ago

Trump to Sign Tax-Cut and Spending Bill in July 4 Ceremony

The Madre Fire burning near New Cuyama has scorched 70,801 acres as of Friday, July 4, 2025, afternoon, making it California’s largest wildfire of the year, with only 10% containment and multiple evacuation zones in place. (CalFire)
1 day ago

Madre Fire Spurs Evacuations Across 3 Counties, Grows to More Than 70,000 Acres

1 day ago

Clovis, Sanger, Madera, and Bass Lake Will Light the Sky With Fireworks Shows Tonight

A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. (Reuters File)
1 day ago

Oil Dips Ahead of Expected OPEC+ Output Increase

Palestinians gather to collect what remains of relief supplies from the distribution center of the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, June 5, 2025. (Reuters File)
1 day ago

613 Killed at Gaza Aid Distribution Sites, Near Humanitarian Covoys, Says UN

Billy Wayne Sinisgalli, a 54-year-old transient known locally as Wayne, was found dead along a rural Fresno road Wednesday in what authorities are investigating as a suspicious death. (Fresno County SO)
1 day ago

Fresno County Authorities Investigating Suspicious Death of Transient Man

Help continue the work that gets you the news that matters most.

Search

Send this to a friend