LOS ANGELES — Amazon’s gold-plated rollout for Melania Trump’s documentary is likely to result in opening-weekend ticket sales of roughly $8.1 million in the United States and Canada, box office analysts projected Saturday. That would give “Melania” the best start for a documentary (excluding concert films) in 14 years.

It would be a face-saving result for the first lady — just a few days ago, ticket sales were pacing at about $5 million — but not for Amazon, which spent an exorbitant $75 million to buy distribution rights to “Melania” and market its release.

EntTelligence, a research firm, estimated that theaters in rural areas would contribute roughly 46% of the opening-weekend total for “Melania,” far higher than is typical for a film opening. Republican counties would also over-perform, contributing about 53% of ticket sales, according to EntTelligence. Top states included Florida, Texas and Arizona.

The audience was overwhelmingly female (72%) and over the age of 55, according to Amazon.

At the Cinemark Valley View in Cleveland on Friday, the audience for a “Melania” screening included a couple of buses worth of people from a nearby senior center. “It was a nice fluff piece,” Gordon Wilson, 80, said as he exited.

Bob Schmidt, 60, went to see “Melania” at the Alamo Drafthouse on Staten Island in New York City on Friday. He rarely goes to the movies anymore, he said, but he bought a ticket to send a message to what he called the liberal movie industry. “I wanted to see this movie kick Hollywood’s ass,” Schmidt said. (During the screening, attendees erupted in applause during the scene when President Donald Trump is sworn in. Someone shouted, “Trump 2028!”)

Amazon, of course, can also monetize “Melania” on its Prime streaming service, where the film is expected to become available in three to four weeks. But the company’s spending on the documentary was so extreme — it paid $40 million for the rights alone, about $26 million more than the next closest bidder — that a question will linger: Was this all just an attempt for Amazon to ingratiate itself with Donald Trump?

Amazon’s lavish spending on “Melania” coincided with 16,000 layoffs at the company (on top of the 14,000 corporate employees it expunged in October), adding to a bumpy moment for the company’s brand.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Brooks Barnes/Doug Mills
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