Some voters may punish congressional Republicans in next year’s midterm elections if expanded Obamacare insurance subsidies are allowed to expire at the end of this month, a new poll released Thursday suggests.

Without the extension of larger subsidies, which lower the cost of health insurance under the Affordable Care Act for millions of Americans, many people will see their health expenses rise by about $1,000 next year. Among those facing a spike, most said they would blame President Donald Trump or Republicans in Congress, according to the poll, which was conducted by KFF, a nonprofit health policy research group.

About half of people covered by Obamacare plans who are registered to vote said such an increase would have a “major impact” on how or whether they vote in the 2026 midterms, according to the survey.

Senate Vote Expected

The Senate is expected to vote next week on whether to extend the subsidies, but it is unclear whether there is enough Republican support for continuing them. President Donald Trump was considering throwing his support behind an extension, a White House official said recently, but has made no public announcement.

Without the additional subsidies, which were first extended during the COVID-19 pandemic, many people will see their annual premiums more than double next year to $1,900 from an average of around $890. Most people will still be eligible for some subsidies.

Concerns about health care affordability cross party lines. Many people are already struggling with the cost of monthly insurance premiums and high out-of-pocket medical costs, and are worried about their ability to pay more for their health care next year. Roughly 6 in 10 people surveyed said they could not afford an increase of $300 a year in insurance without it significantly affecting their finances.

Extending the Obamacare subsidies was a key issue in the recent 43-day government shutdown, during which Democrats insisted they must be continued and Republicans refused to commit while the government was closed.

KFF surveyed people who purchase coverage under the Affordable Care Act at the beginning of open enrollment for health insurance for 2026.

About a quarter of those surveyed said they would be “very likely” to go without health insurance next year if their premiums rose significantly. That group includes low-income Americans who do not pay premiums for their current Obamacare plan but would have to pay $50 monthly next year. Others said they would shop for a new plan or look for a different job.

Of those surveyed who identified as Republicans, two-thirds said they would blame congressional Democrats if the subsidies expired, while those who identified as Democrats overwhelmingly blamed Republicans. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who said they did not support the right-wing MAGA movement said they would blame Trump or congressional Republicans.

The survey also underscored how little confidence people have in lawmakers’ ability to address the high cost of health insurance. About half of those polled said they had little or no faith in congressional Democrats, while about two-thirds said they had no or not much confidence in Trump or congressional Republicans.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Reed Abelson/Anna Rose Layden
c. 2025 The New York Times Company