NEWMAN — California almond growers are used to dealing with swings in the weather and water supply. Now they must also grapple with the uncertainty of trade battles as the Trump administration levies tariffs on goods from several countries and weighs adding more to the list.

With more than three-quarters of California’s almond crop headed for export, tariffs could impact where the nut is headed and send ripple effects throughout the state’s economy, experts said. The state is the biggest producer of the world’s almonds, accounting for about 80 percent of the global supply.

Already, China has responded to Trump’s move by raising tariffs on U.S. almonds — and that’s on top of tariffs levied on the nut in the last Trump administration.

“If we start a trade war with, you know, India, the European Union, parts of the Middle East, then the almond industry in California is going to suffer dramatically,” said Colin Carter, agricultural economist and professor emeritus at University of California, Davis. “The price will fall even further and you’ll see orchards being ripped out, farms being lost. There’d be farms for sale up and down the Valley.”

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Trump’s Trade Policies and Their Impact

Just weeks into his second term, President Donald Trump has slapped 10% tariffs on China and threatened, then delayed for 30 days, 25% taxes on goods from Canada and Mexico. He has also threatened to expand the trade war by levying reciprocal tariffs on a number of products to match what other countries charge on U.S. goods, which economists say is creating a tough environment for already-challenged farmers trying to plan ahead.

Meanwhile, Trump’s moves have drawn retaliation from U.S. trading partners. China, for example, has said U.S.-grown chicken, wheat, corn and cotton will face an extra 15% tariff while sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruit, vegetables and dairy products will face an additional 10% — and so will almonds.

Almonds are California’s biggest agricultural export, and the state reeled in $4.7 billion from almond exports in 2022 with about half going to the European Union and India, state farm data shows.

Almond experts said the key for California will be continuing to pursue a range of export markets. “While China continues to be an important market, California almonds are shipped to more than 100 destinations, therefore maintaining a diverse export program is essential,” said Rick Kushman, spokesperson for the Almond Board of California.

Political Landscape and Farmer Reactions

Many California farmers in the crop-rich Central Valley have welcomed some of Trump’s other policies, specifically aimed at getting more water to their fields. The area — which grows much of the country’s fresh produce including citrus fruit and almonds — is largely Republican in a widely Democratic state.

But California’s almonds will now face a total tariff of 35% in China. That’s because Beijing placed tariffs on almonds during Trump’s first administration in response to tariffs he levied on Chinese products. The move made California’s almonds relatively more expensive to nuts from Australia, which as a result gained market share in China while California’s almond experts to China declined, experts said.

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Adapting to Changing Markets

Since then, many California almond exporters have shifted their focus to other markets, said Zachary Williams, sales director for Stewart & Jasper Orchards in Newman, Calif. He said Canadian buyers currently are scooping up California almonds ahead of tariffs potentially taking effect since the state grows so much of the world’s supply. He said any attempt by India to raise tariffs could spark concern the nut might grow too pricey for consumers there.

The tariffs are a challenge, he said, but an even bigger one is the lack of certainty for almond growers who don’t expect to harvest a new orchard for at least three years and then plan to grow it for two decades.

“The uncertainty is probably more of a problem than the tariff itself,” Williams said. “Uncertainty about whether there will be, or won’t be, is a little harder to plan around.”