With countries issuing retaliatory tariffs in response to President Donald Trump’s protective orders Tuesday morning, actions from import destinations may soon hit close to home for Central Valley farmers.

China made it clear that it would impose tariffs up 15% on chicken, pork, soy, and beef products from the U.S. beginning March 10, according to ProFarmer.com. It would put a 10% on fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, which includes tree nuts. That brings the total duty on tree nuts to 35%.

North of the border, Canada promised an immediate 25% tariff on $20 billion of U.S. imports. More tariffs would be placed on $86 billion of U.S. goods, ProFarmer reported. What’s less clear is how that country, a major importer of U.S. agricultural goods, would tax specific crops.

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For growers, tariffs on potash and nitrogen from Canada could mean major price increases on fertilizer.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has kept her country’s strategies quieter, saying she has several plans depending on different actions from Trump.

But growers are also keeping an eye on the European Union, a major importer of U.S. agricultural products.

“For pistachios, all tree nuts, so much goes overseas — 65%, 70%, sometimes as much as 75% — anything that disrupts that movement is going to have an adverse effect,” said Jim Zion, managing partner with Meridian Growers. “We saw it the last time we had these tariffs put in place in China.”

Growers Wait and See for Extent of Tariff Damage

While shippers await which tariffs take place, Zion said some overseas customers have been calling to get orders rushed in.

“A Mexico customer asked about what we could ship out as soon as possible in anticipation that there may be retaliatory tariffs put on pistachios,” Zion said.

Together, Canada, Mexico, and China make up 25% of the export market, Zion said. Behind the U.S., the E.U. is the biggest consumer of the nut, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It also imports the second largest amount of the nut, behind China.

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How the E.U. will respond remains unseen, with threats from the coalition directed more toward bourbon, motorcycles, and jeans, ProFarmer reports.

Trump has said the E.U. blocks too many ag products, but Politico reports that the body’s culinary, phytosanitary, and political obstacles prevent many imports.

Requests for response made by GV Wire were not returned from the citrus and fresh fruit industries.

The Almond Board of California is also looking at possible tariffs on almonds. Rick Kushman, spokesperson for the Almond Board said while China is an important market, the nut gets shipped to more than 100 destinations.

“Maintaining a diverse export program is essential,” Kushman said. “We are awaiting more information from Mexico, which is due to be released on Sunday, March 9. Our industry continues to support reducing barriers to trade and smooth market access for California almonds.”

Worst-Case Scenario: New Trade War Could Cost California Ag $6 Billion

Trump’s tariffs are the biggest since the 1930s, impacting about $1.5 trillion in imports, ProFarmer reported.

In December, ag experts at UC Davis’ Giannini Foundation said a new trade war could wipe out a quarter of California’s agricultural exports, costing the state $6 billion annually.

Pistachios and dairy would be the industries hardest hit, according to analysts. Following the 2018 trade war between China and the U.S., almond prices fell from $2.50 per pound to as low as $1.40, causing many growers to pull up orchards.

Nut prices have only recently stabilized.

Low Pistachio Inventories Dull Impact of Tariffs

The 35% duty on pistachios makes the nut less competitive compared to Iran and Turkey, the next major producers. Major cities Shanghai and Beijing prefer the premium U.S. nut whereas smaller cities prefer more competitively prices Iranian imports, according to the USDA’s February report.

Extreme heat has stunted pistachio growth in Iran, despite a forecasted 20% increase in production. Turkey’s “on-year” of the pistachios alternate-bearing crop cycle could more than double production to 385,000 tons this harvest.

In California, growers expect this year to be an “on-year,” meaning a strong harvest. Strong demand has led to scant carryover from last year, Zion said.

“It’s good it’s happening now because most of the crop has been sold,” Zion said.

Farmers Depend on Canada for Fertilizer

The Fertilizer Institute called on Trump to create a carveout for fertilizers, essential to farming.

Manufacturers rely on Canada for potash imports, a key ingredient in the mixtures. As much as 85% comes from Canada as mineral deposits are geographically specific and mining is time intensive and costly, the institute said in a statement.

Canada also supplies nearly 10% of the country’s nitrogen needs and 20% of sulfur.

“A stable and affordable supply of fertilizers is critical to maintaining the global competitiveness of U.S. farmers, strengthening rural economies, and keeping food prices in check,” said Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute.