Could Esmeralda Soria eschew a third term in the state Assembly and make an attempt for the chamber on the other side of the state Capitol?

Several Democratic insiders told Politics 101 there is considerable buzz that Soria, D-Fresno, is considering a run for state Senate District 14 in 2026. That could pit her against a former colleague on the Fresno City Council, Nelson Esparza, another Fresno Democrat.

Esparza announced his run last year, and has collected several endorsements and considerable campaign funding. He ended 2024 with more than $275,000 cash on hand, state financial reports show.

Why would Soria give up a seemingly safe seat for what could be a tough fight?

Data compiled by the California Target Book shows that Soria’s Assembly District 27 turned red, voting for Donald Trump for president and Steve Garvey for U.S. Senate — both Republicans — last November.

In 2024, Soria defeated Joanna Garcia Rose, R-Atwater, 54% to 46%. The eight-point margin of victory is less than 12-point Democratic registration advantage — 41% Democrat and 29% Republican.

Soria’s campaign team did not respond to a request for comment. Esparza declined comment.

Sen. Anna Caballero, D-Merced, represents the 14th District but terms out next year.

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SD 14 MAP

The Hurtado Factor

A twin rumor regarding SD 14 has Melissa Hurtado, D-Bakersfield, the state Senator for adjacent SD 16, returning to her Sanger hometown and running in SD 14.

Hurtado first won election to the state Senate in 2018. Redistricting in 2022 would have forced her to run against Caballero.

Avoiding the matchup, Hurtado set up camp in Bakersfield, and won a tight race in 2022 against Republican David Shepard by 20 votes.

Hurtado told KMJ’s Alexan Balekian that a run in another district, or another run for Congress is possible, She failed to advance beyond the primary for CD 22 in 2024, eventually won by incumbent Rep. David Valadao, R-Kings County.

She tells Politics 101 that she has no plans yet.

“Some folks wish I could have all of my original district. I have one more term left,” she said.

A state Senator has to be registered to vote within the district. Election law attorneys GV Wire spoke with said if Hurtado switched, she would not necessarily have to resign her current seat.

Ultimately, it is up to the state Senate to set qualification rules.

Another reason Hurtado may want to switch — Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux said he is considering a a state Senate District 16 run in 2026.

Boudreaux ran for Congress last year, losing to Vince Fong in a special election for a vacant seat. Although his name appeared on the ballot for the full-term seat last November, Boudreaux forwent any campaigning.

His current sheriff term runs through 2028.

Senate District 16 has a nine-point Democratic registration advantage over Republicans (39% to 30%) as of Oct. 2024.

Soria Opens Legal Defense Fund

Soria is a prodigious fundraiser. She raised $3.4 million in 2024 alone, but her latest campaign finance report as of Dec. 31 shows only $15,000 cash on hand.

State campaign finance reports also show Soria opened a legal defense fund on Feb. 6. She transferred $5,000 from her campaign, and the California State Council of Service Employees Small Contributor Committee contributed $7,500.

Soria is defending herself from a civil defamation suit by Fresno City Council President Mike Karbassi. Both ran for the Assembly seat in 2022. Karbassi claims Soria sent a misleading mailer to voters implying he had a criminal record.

The defense fund reports racking up more than $52,000 in expenses in 2024. The case is in Fresno County Superior Court, with a Feb. 28 date for pre-trial discovery. A trial is scheduled for Dec. 1.

Even SD 14 Getting Redder

Senate District 14 covers parts of Merced, Madera, and Fresno counties.

The district has a strong Democratic registration advantage at plus-17 (43% to 26% over the GOP), but the voting is trending right.

California Target Book data shows that in 2020, Joe Biden won the district by 21 points. In 2024, Kamala Harris won by just 4. The Democratic U.S. Senator running in 2022, Alex Padilla, won by 8.5%. Adam Schiff, also a Democrat running for the other Senate seat, won by 4.6%.

Gavin Newsom lost 10 points of support between 2018 and 2022.

What About AD 27?

A reason Soria may want to stay in AD 27, despite the red turn, is her name recognition. And, she is a strong ally with Speaker of the Assembly Robert Rivas, D-Hollister.

A Democrat faces a tough GOP challenge in 2026 from former Merced Mayor Mike Murphy, who recently filed to run for AD 27.