Unlikely Battleground California Crucially Influences US House's Political Balance

State Elections

Unlikely Battleground California Crucially Influences US House's Political Balance — Again

By Associated Press

Published 4 months ago on

December 5, 2024

California's pivotal role in shaping the U.S. House balance unfolds with Democratic gains and Republican defenses in key districts. (AP File)

Democrats secure three GOP-held seats in California, narrowing the House gap but falling short of a majority.
Low voter turnout and Republican gains in state legislature temper Democratic enthusiasm despite House victories.
California's volatile House districts continue to play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in Congress.

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LOS ANGELES — Democrats and Republicans agreed on at least one thing before November’s election: California would play a central role in determining control of the U.S. House.

Indeed it did.

Democrat Adam Gray’s come-from-behind victory over Republican Rep. John Duarte in a Central Valley farm-belt district Tuesday — the final House contest decided this year — gave Democrats their third pick-up of a GOP-held seat in the state, a small victory in a tough year for Democrats nationally.

While Democratic wins narrowed the gap in the House, Republicans held their ground in two other toss-up contests that helped the GOP defend its fragile majority in Washington. Republicans won 220 House seats this election cycle, with Democrats holding 215 seats.

Despite falling short of a majority, Democrats stressed that the party will gain seats next year, leaving the chamber even more closely divided.

“Netting three seats was a very big deal,” Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking Democrat in the chamber, who lives in Redlands, east of Los Angeles, said in Washington.

Democratic Enthusiasm Tempered by Low Turnout

Democratic enthusiasm was tempered, however, by turnout figures that lagged the 2020 presidential election in the heavily Democratic state, even with Kamala Harris leading the Democratic ticket in her home state.

Also, Republicans made incremental gains in the state Legislature. Voters overwhelmingly endorsed a ballot proposal that makes shoplifting a felony for repeat offenders again and increases penalties for some drug charges amid frustration over retail crimes, a proposal opposed by some Democrats.

The election showed Democrats will need to pay closer attention to issues like crime and the cost of living, even in a state where the party holds every statewide office and dominates the Legislature and congressional delegation, Claremont McKenna College political scientist Jack Pitney said.

In the House, Democrats “were hoping that California would push them over the top to gain a majority. But their gains elsewhere were not strong enough,” Pitney added, pointing to GOP wins in North Carolina.

Close Races Highlight California’s Importance

Gray won by a margin of less than 200 votes, with election officials reporting Tuesday all ballots had been counted.

Duarte captured the seat in 2022 when he defeated Gray by one of the closest margins in the country, 564 votes. He was often listed among the most vulnerable House Republicans given that narrow margin of victory in a district with a Democratic tilt — about 11 points over registered Republicans.

Gray said in a statement: “We always knew that this race would be as close as they come, and we’re expecting a photo finish this year, too.”

In other Democratic House gains, first-time candidate Derek Tran ousted Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in a Southern California district anchored in Orange County, while Democrat George Whitesides toppled Republican Rep. Mike Garcia is a district north of Los Angeles.

In a district east of Los Angeles, Republican Rep. Ken Calvert again held off Democrat Will Rollins in a repeat of their 2022 contest. And Republican Rep. David Valadao kept his grip on a farm-belt seat, despite its heavy Democratic registration edge.

The outcome will leave Republicans with nine of the state’s 52 U.S. House seats next year.

California’s Volatile House Districts

Although California is often seen as a liberal monolith, a string of House districts has proved volatile in recent elections, spotlighting their importance to both parties. Democrats snatched seven seats from Republicans in 2018, then Republicans seized four from Democrats in 2020.

In the 2022 elections, Republicans gained one seat, from 11 to 12, while Democrats dropped to 40 seats from 42, after California lost a House seat in reapportionment after the 2020 census. Overall, the state dropped to 52 districts from 53.

The state played a pivotal role in securing the gavel for Republicans in 2022 and installing Rep. Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield as speaker.