The situation at the southern border looks very different these days.

Gone are the headlines about surging border crossings crushing border communities and cities like New York struggling to fund housing for migrants who recently came to the country.

The reality is that the numbers at the southern border have dropped to levels not seen before in the Biden administration — and lower than they were during parts of the Trump administration.

The dramatic drop in border crossings came after a Biden administration policy seen by White House officials as a major success for an administration that has spent three years fighting Republican attacks over its handling of surging border crossings.

Vice President Kamala Harris, however, has not focused on the dramatic change at the southern border in her presidential campaign. I’ll explain what’s happening at the border, and offer some theories about why Harris isn’t talking it up.

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A Border Shutdown That Worked

The border had seen a steady drop in crossings all year, but things took a dramatic turn in June. That’s when the Biden administration took a hallmark of the failed immigration bill from February — a measure allowing border officials to turn back migrants quickly when crossings exceed a certain level — and put a version of it into place via presidential proclamation.

Since then, the results have been clear: Border arrests are down, asylum claims are plummeting and fewer newly arrived people are being released into U.S. communities.

Crossings have gotten so low that Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas has stopped busing migrants to Democratic-run cities, a political tactic he wielded to force the public to pay attention to the border. There are simply no longer people to send.

Harris Steers Clear

During her speech in Chicago at the Democratic National Convention, Harris discussed immigration — but focused on blaming Republicans for the collapse of bipartisan legislation this year. It would have increased resources by providing more money for detention, border agents and asylum officers.

“Last year, Joe and I brought together Democrats and conservative Republicans to write the strongest border bill in decades,” she said to the crowd in Chicago. “The Border Patrol endorsed it. But Donald Trump believes a border deal would hurt his campaign, so he ordered his allies in Congress to kill the deal.”

That deal would have allowed the president to shut off asylum access at the southern border if the crossings reached a certain level — but Harris did not mention the fact that the administration went ahead and did something similar anyway.

So why isn’t Harris talking about it more in her run for the presidency?

There could be several reasons.

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The Number of Arrests at the Border Often Fluctuates and Could Spike at Any Moment

Last summer, the Biden administration cautiously hailed a brief dip in crossings after a different asylum restriction took effect. By the end of the year, record numbers of people were crossing into the country, and the administration needed to send top officials to Mexico to figure out a solution. Migration experts have also said that smugglers can adapt to new policies in the United States, and that could happen with President Joe Biden’s asylum limit as well.

Democrats Don’t Want to Revive ‘Border Czar’ Attacks

Focusing on border policy could also draw renewed attention to a Republican talking point that has dogged Harris’ vice presidency and presidential campaign: Is she in charge of the southern border or not?

Harris was asked by Biden early in her vice presidency to focus on “root causes” of migration, and Republicans seized on that assignment to describe her misleadingly as responsible for crossings overall. Taking credit for border policy successes now could leave Harris more open to criticisms if crossings rise; it could also give Republicans an opportunity to point to the record number of arrivals before 2024.

The Border Still Divides Democrats

Discussing a restrictive policy could inflame progressives who have seemed energized by Harris’ run for the presidency, and dampen the overall vibes of joy and unity that have given the campaign a burst of momentum.

Immigration advocates have already sued over Biden’s policy and denounced the administration for turning back migrants who they believe have rightful claims to protection in the United States.

Harris’ presidential campaign is just over a month old, and a pair of high-stakes moments are approaching when the border may come into focus: Harris’ first major interview as a presidential candidate Thursday on CNN, as well as the planned debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10.

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The campaign has found places to mention the dip in crossings, including in emails to the press. But it has not become a standard part of her speeches, which is notable given how closely she is associated with the topic of border control, fairly or not.

“The VP is proud that their administration’s actions have led to significant reductions in border crossings, and the campaign has and will continue to talk about that,” Kevin Munoz, a campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “But she also knows we need to go even further, which is why you hear her talk about the urgent need to get the bipartisan border bill passed and her commitment to doing that as president.”

Trump will undoubtedly attack Harris and the administration of which she is a part over the record numbers of migrants who entered the country up until this year. Unlike before, Harris has a new policy and data to respond with.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Hamed Aleaziz/Paul Ratje
c. 2024 The New York Times Company