Fresno County has an estimated 36,900 ballots left to process, sharply reducing the pool of votes that could alter the outcome of several unresolved local races.

The Fresno County Clerk/Registrar of Voters said the remaining ballots as of Tuesday include 32,000 vote-by-mail ballots collected from vote centers and drop boxes on Election Day, 3,000 same-day registration and provisional ballots, and 1,900 ballots requiring duplication.

Another approximately 5,200 ballots had signature issues. Voters have until Nov. 25 at 5 p.m. to resolve those issues and allow eligible ballots to be counted.

The next results update is scheduled for Friday before 5 p.m.

The remaining-ballot estimate has fallen dramatically from the 102,500 reported after the previous count. Fresno County’s latest results show 230,461 voters have had ballots counted, representing 43.57% of the county’s 528,940 registered voters.

And the latest batch has already changed the leaders in two of the closest races identified in GV Wire’s previous analysis.

Salazar Takes Lead in Superior Court Race

One of the biggest changes came in the race for Fresno County Superior Court Office 7.

Jose L. Salazar now leads Jeff Hammerschmidt by 2,999 votes, reversing Hammerschmidt’s previous 2,811-vote advantage.

Salazar has 98,653 votes, or 50.77%, compared with Hammerschmidt’s 95,654 votes, or 49.23%.

Because the contest is countywide, the 36,900 remaining ballots provide the clearest picture of how much movement is still mathematically possible.

If all 36,900 remaining ballots contained a valid vote in the judicial race, Hammerschmidt would need about 19,950 of them, or roughly 54.1%, to overcome Salazar’s current advantage.

Talford Overtakes Davis in Fresno Unified Race

The Fresno Unified Sunnyside-area trustee race also has a new leader.

Riley Talford now has 4,180 votes, or 50.72%, while longtime incumbent Valerie Davis has 4,016, or 48.73%. Talford’s lead stands at 164 votes.

Davis led Talford by 77 votes in the previous update.

The race remains among the county’s closest, but the countywide remaining-ballot figure does not show how many of the 36,900 ballots come from voters in the Sunnyside trustee area.

Steed’s Lead Shrinks in McLane Race

Karen Steed remains ahead in Fresno Unified’s McLane-area race, but her advantage over incumbent Veva Islas has narrowed.

Steed has 2,664 votes, or 36.54%, followed by Islas with 2,415, or 33.13%. Mirna Garcia has 2,177 votes, or 29.86%.

That puts Steed 249 votes ahead of Islas and 487 ahead of Garcia.

Singh Expands Fresno City Council Lead

The Fresno City Council District 1 race moved in the opposite direction, with Naindeep Singh substantially increasing his advantage over Rob Fuentes.

Singh now has 7,856 votes, or 53.34%, compared with Fuentes’ 6,872, or 46.66%. Singh leads by 984 votes after holding only a 199-vote advantage in the previous update.

In District 3, Joaquin Arambula leads Keshia Thomas by 668 votes. Arambula has 4,948 votes, or 53.62%, compared with Thomas’ 4,280, or 46.38%.

Measure S Path Gets Steeper

Fresno County’s proposed Measure S transportation sales tax remains below the simple majority needed for passage.

“No” has 110,948 votes, or 52.04%, while “yes” has 102,264, or 47.96%, leaving supporters 8,684 votes short.

If all 36,900 remaining ballots include valid votes on Measure S, “yes” would need approximately 22,792 of them, or about 61.8%, to move ahead by at least one vote.

The requirement would be lower if thousands of currently challenged ballots are successfully cured and added to the count, but it would still require Measure S to perform substantially better among those ballots than it has among votes counted so far.

The calculation also assumes every remaining ballot contains a valid Measure S vote, which is unlikely because some voters leave contests blank.

Small-City Contests Still Have Tight Margins

Several smaller races also remain close.

In Selma City Council District 2, Bryan Ramirez now leads John Trujillo by 51 votes, 571 to 520. The previous margin was just eight votes.

Coalinga’s Measure J, which would increase the city’s transient occupancy tax, leads by 70 votes. “Yes” has 1,228 votes, or 51.47%, while “no” has 1,158, or 48.53%.

Firebaugh’s Measure F has moved above the two-thirds threshold required for passage. The parcel tax measure now has 830 “yes” votes, or 68.48%, compared with 382 “no” votes, or 31.52%.

How secure those margins are depends on how many of Fresno County’s remaining ballots come from each community.

Some Larger Leads Get Bigger Cushion

Other races identified in the previous analysis have expanded the distance between candidates.

Maria Pacheco leads Mike Karbassi by 5,741 votes in the Fresno County Board of Supervisors District 1 race, with Pacheco receiving 58.54% of votes counted.

County Superintendent of Schools Michele Cantwell-Copher leads Eimear O’Brien by 24,123 votes, 106,686 to 82,563.

All election results remain preliminary until the county completes its canvass.

The remaining 36,900-ballot estimate is countywide and does not mean every race has that many votes still available. For district, school board, and city contests, the decisive question is how many of those ballots came from voters eligible to participate in each race.

Friday’s update should provide the next indication of whether the county’s closest contests stabilize or change leaders again.

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