Recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids across Fresno and Madera counties have triggered widespread emotions, with numerous families and individuals living in fear.

But it’s the economic anxiety that’s causing even more stress, affecting a variety of industries, notably agriculture and construction, as well as mom-and-pop businesses.

“When enforcement activity creates fear, the effects can reach far beyond people directly involved,” U.S. Rep. Adam Gray, D-Merced, said at a news conference Friday in Mendota. “It can affect whether parents feel comfortable taking their kids to school, whether workers can show up for their shifts, and whether local businesses can keep operating.”

While the local financial ramifications of recent ICE raids remain unclear, a 2025 UC Merced economic study estimated that mass deportations of California’s 1.5 million undocumented workers, who make up 8% of the workforce, would cost the state $275 billion in economic activity and $23 billion annually in lost tax revenue.

“Immigrants, both documented and undocumented, are deeply and intricately woven into our overall economic fabric,” said study co-author Abby Raisz, research director for the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

ICE Raids in the Valley

Last week and earlier this week, ICE agents targeted multiple residential developments over a two-day span, visiting three Lennar Homes construction sites across Fresno and Madera counties. The enforcement activity led to worker detentions and panic among the workforce.

Agricultural labor has also come under increased scrutiny, with regional farming networks facing intense pressure from ICE sweeps and roving patrols throughout the Central Valley.

Labor representatives, including the Nisei Farmers League, warned that politically driven enforcement actions threaten the backbone of Valley agriculture.

A bakery in Kerman also was targeted, with ICE agents detaining four customers of La Princesa Real Bakery.

A bakery worker said business has since been slow.

Local Catholic churches also have been affected by the ICE raids.

“It breaks my heart to hear from some of my pastors that members of their congregations have been taken away abruptly and with little or no information coming from federal agents,” Fresno Bishop Joseph V. Brennan said in a letter to parishioners. “Many of those who sit alongside you in the pews have been affected, with some already having been detained.”

Big Fresno Fair Deals With ICE Rumors

Even the family-friendly atmosphere of the Big Fresno Fair was affected by the possibility of ICE raids.

Fresno City councilmember Miguel Arias sent out a warning about the possible dangers of immigrant families attending the fair.

“I recognize the importance of the Fair to our local economy, but no economic benefit should be put above the safety of our immigrant families,” Arias said. “Ensuring that ICE is not operating within the fairgrounds goes beyond the risks that families and vendors may face in moving to and from the event.

“I continue to urge immigrant residents to know their rights, stay informed, and avoid unnecessary travel and public gatherings, including the Big Fresno Fair, while these raids continue in Fresno County.”

Unverified rumors and safety warnings about possible enforcement activity nearby prompted the Big Fresno Fair to issue a statement.

“Let us be clear: There have been no confirmed sightings of ICE at The Big Fresno Fair,” Big Fresno Fair spokesperson German Amezcua said. “And we have received no information regarding any planned federal immigration enforcement activity at the Fair.

“Unfortunately, false information and AI-generated images circulating online are creating unnecessary fear and confusion in our community,” he said.

The California Immigrant Policy Center condemned the coordinated sweeps as a “fear by quota” tactic that has expanded beyond the central San Joaquin Valley, threatening statewide productivity weeks ahead of a major election.

The question remains whether ongoing ICE activity will leave a lasting scar on the local economy.