Recent polls of the Senate race in Texas have shown consistent leads for James Talarico, the Democratic nominee. His Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, has led in only three polls since late June. Even a Republican-leaning pollster, Trafalgar Group, recently found Talarico ahead in the race.

Despite the consistent leads by Talarico, there are some signs of the race tightening in the final stretch, as his margins have narrowed some since mid-September.

Spending in the race has reached a fever pitch, exceeding $500 million, according to AdImpact.

The latest high-quality polls of the contest, which were released by Siena Research Institute and ReconMR on Tuesday and Marist University on Wednesday, both found Talarico ahead, though in the Marist poll the Democrat only held a narrow edge — well within the margin of error.

In the Siena/Recon poll, he had the support of nearly all Democrats, 60% of independents and 7% of Republicans. Another poll released on Tuesday, conducted by Quantus Insights, found Paxton leading by less than 1 percentage point.

Democrats have long had hopes of flipping a seat in Texas, where the party has not won a Senate race since 1988. Talarico’s run has reminded some of Beto O’Rourke’s ultimately unsuccessful candidacy in 2018, but O’Rourke never had the polling leads that Talarico has held in this cycle. An October 2018 Times/Siena poll found Sen. Ted Cruz, the Republican incumbent, up by 8 points over O’Rourke, continuing a run in which Cruz led every public poll of the race, according to Real Clear Politics.

In the Texas race for governor this year, the same Siena/Recon poll found Gov. Greg Abbott with the edge over Gina Hinojosa, his Democratic challenger, suggesting a shift from a September Siena/Recon poll that found Hinojosa up by 4 points.

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This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

By Ruth Igielnik/Antranik Tavitan
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