An oil pumpjack at sunset in Ward County, Texas, May 20, 2025. As of Jan. 27, 2026, the United States is no longer a party to the Paris agreement on climate change, becoming the only country in the world to abandon the international commitment to slow global warming. (Paul Ratje/The New York Times)
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Oil prices tumbled below $1 a barrel on Thursday investors gave more weight to the International Energy Agency lowering of its global oil demand forecast for 2026 against the receding risk of U.S. attacks on Iran.
Brent crude oil futures were down $1.26, or 1.82%, at $68.14 a barrel by 10:16 a.m. CDT (1616 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.24, or 1.92%, to $63.39.
Global oil demand will rise more slowly than previously expected this year, the IEA said on Thursday, while projecting a sizeable surplus despite outages that cut supply in January.
The Brent and WTI benchmarks reversed gains to turn negative after the IEA’s monthly report, having derived support earlier from concerns over the U.S.-Iran backdrop.
“It just ran out of steam,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group. “The market’s doubling down on the lowering demand forecast.”
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that they had yet to reach a definitive agreement on how to move forward with Iran but that negotiations with Tehran would continue.
On Tuesday, Trump had said he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if a deal is not reached with Iran. The date and venue of the next round of talks have yet to be announced.
A hefty build in U.S. crude inventories had capped the early price gains. U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, far exceeding the 793,000 increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.
U.S. refinery utilisation rates dropped by 1.1 percentage points in the week to 89.4%, EIA data showed.
On the supply side, Russia’s seaborne oil products exports in January rose by 0.7% from December to 9.12 million metric tons on high fuel output and a seasonal drop in domestic demand, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed.
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(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Enes Tunagur in London, Sam Li and Lewis Jackson in BeijingEditing by David Goodman, Ros Russell and David Gregorio)
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Oil Prices Tumble Below $1 as IEA Cuts Demand Forecast
