As expected, incumbents in the five Central Valley-area  congressional races are leading in fundraising. The closest battle could be for second in Congressional District 22 — pitting a moderate Democrat against a progressive Democrat.

The districts reflect current maps, but things could drastically change if Proposition 50 passes on Nov. 4.

Rep. David Valadao, R-Kings County, continues to defy the electoral odds — winning the 22nd district despite a party registration disadvantage.

He raised more than $630,000 in the last quarter, new FEC numbers show. Jasmeet Bains, D-Delano — the moderate state Assemblymember running for Congress — reported $350,000 for the quarter, her first since announcing her campaign.

Visalia Unified School Board Trustee Randy Villegas, D-Visalia, has raised more overall and has more cash on hand, but he’s also been campaigning longer.

Bains’ campaign says it’s the strongest opening quarter for any Valadao challenger in two decades.

“This campaign isn’t about politics — it’s about people,” Bains said in a news release. “Our momentum comes from everyday people who want to fix our broken health care system, bring down the cost of living, and restore integrity in Washington.”

Republicans have a different analysis on Valadao’s challengers.

“Democrat establishment darling Jasmeet Bains can’t even win over her own party. Her campaign’s obituary is being written by the far-left wrecking crew of Randy Villegas, AOC, Bernie, and David Hogg,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Christian Martinez said.

The Working Families Party, which supports Villegas, piled on. In a news release, the group called Villegas the top-raising Democrat in the race, saying he is rejecting corporate PAC money.

And the accusations keep coming. The NRCC is also harping on Villegas for apparently not filing his financial disclosure reports with the Clerk of the House of Representatives.

Not true says the Villegas campaign. Although it does not appear on the clerk’s database — the campaign shared an email from the clerk’s office saying it is an IT issue — Villegas filed May 9.

Valadao filed his disclosure, and Bains requested an extension.

Other Races

Rep. Adam Gray, D-Merced, may not face as tight a race as in 2022 (a loss to John Duarte) and 2024 (a win over Duarte), based on fundraising figures.

Gray has more than $1 million on hand, and leads in all other metrics. Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez, a Republican, appears to be struggling with donors, raising just over $70,000 for the quarter. Businessman Vin Kruttiventi, R-Pleasanton, raised some donor money but also loaned his campaign more than $276,000.

Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, and veterans advocate Lorenzo Rios, R-Clovis, were relatively close for the quarter. Costa leads substantially overall and in cash on hand.

Valley Delegation on Prop. 50

Unsurprisingly, the Central Valley’s congressional delegation stance on Proposition 50 depends on the party. Voters will decide by Nov. 4 whether to gerrymander California’s congressional district map.

Democrats are in favor; Republicans are against.

With voting already started, Prop. 50 would change the state constitution to temporarily bypass maps drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission. The commission is charged with drawing congressional lines — as well as lines for state legislative offices — after the every-ten-year census.

Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, says the redistricting commission should apply to all 50 states but …

“Proposition 50 is the right response by California given President Trump’s desire to rig elections in Texas and other states. It isn’t democratic to have one set of rules for one political party and another set of rules for the opposing party,” Costa said.

He called Prop. 50 “a one-time response.”

Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, calls Newsom’s narrative that Texas forced California’s hand “a lie.”

At a speech earlier this month to the Stanislaus County Republican Party, McClintock said Texas had to redraw lines because of a court mandate. While acknowledging Texas drew lines to the GOP advantage, state law allows them so. California has its independent commission, with public meetings.

“The Gavinmander was drafted behind closed doors by a small handful of partisan zealots in a matter of days,” McClintock said. “Newsom is setting a dangerous precedent that any time a ruling party doesn’t like the way a district votes — it can simply change the district. That is the very opposite of democracy.”

Rep. Vince Fong, R-Bakersfield, whose district would largely be unchanged, called Prop. 50 a “blatant attack on fair elections.

“Perhaps most concerning, the proposed maps would cut up our communities and diminish representation for the Central Valley, making it harder to ensure access to water, protect our farmers, and support local industries like energy and aerospace,” Fong said.

Where Valadao, Others Rank on the Trump Score

Valadao is the least Trumpy Republican in the California congressional delegation.

That’s according to the Institute for Legislative Analysis, which released its “Trump Score,” ranking all 535 members of Congress on how often they voted in 2024 with Donald Trump and the GOP agenda.

Valadao voted 62.93% in line with Trump, ranking 232nd among the 535 federal legislators (Congress and Senate). One of his lowest scores was 32.61% on inflation legislation. His highest category was 80.65% on border issues.

Only nine Republicans had lower scores than Valadao.

Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, ranked second-highest in the state delegation with 86.11%. Doug LaMalfa, R-Richvale, was No. 1.