California Gov. Gavin Newsom is closing in on Vice President J.D. Vance in a hypothetical matchup for the 2028 U.S. presidential race, according to a new national poll from Emerson College as  reported by Newsweek.

The survey, conducted Oct. 13-14 among 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of ±3 points, found Vance at 46% and Newsom at 45% — a statistical tie and a significant shift from earlier polls. In August, Newsom trailed 43.5% to Vance’s 44.4%, with an even wider margin in July.

While neither man has declared a 2028 campaign, the numbers highlight rising interest in both potential candidates. Newsom, a two-term Democratic governor, has built a national profile through high-visibility media appearances and sharp criticism of Republican policies.

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Vance, a former author and U.S. senator from Ohio, gained national prominence after joining the Republican ticket and remains a favorite among conservative voters.

Pollsters caution that the results reflect a popular-vote snapshot and not an Electoral College projection. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson’s polling unit, said the findings show “a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion.”

With a single point separating the two, Newsom’s gains mark a notable shift in early 2028 race speculation. However, analysts stress that with three years to go, the field is wide open.