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Poll: California Dems Favor Newsom Over Harris in 2028 Matchup
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Published 3 weeks ago on
August 20, 2025

Poll shows California Democrats favor Gov. Gavin Newsom over Kamala Harris in a 2028 primary matchup, with Newsom leading 25% to 19%. (GV Wire)

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A new POLITICO‑Citrin Center‑Possibility Lab survey shows California Democrats and Democratic‑leaning independents prefer Gov. Gavin Newsom over former Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary, with Newsom leading 25% to 19%.

The poll, conducted from July 28 to Aug. 12, surveyed 1,445 registered Democratic and Democratic‑leaning independent voters and found that 75% of respondents said they were “excited” about the possibility of Newsom running, compared with 67% for Harris.

Trailing the two Californians were Pete Buttigieg at 13 % and Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez at 10%. In a separate survey of roughly 400 “policy influencers,” support was markedly lower: just 14% back Newsom and 2% Harris, with Buttigieg leading at 19%.

Political scientists note a contrast between public enthusiasm for Newsom’s visible activism against former President Donald Trump and declining confidence in Harris, whose post‑2024 campaign footprint has waned. The poll underscores potential challenges for both figures heading into the early stages of the 2028 contest.

 

Table showing 2028 Democratic primary poll of California Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Gavin Newsom leads with 25%, followed by Kamala Harris at 19%, Pete Buttigieg at 13%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%. Other candidates poll in the single digits. Policy influencers favor Buttigieg (19%) over Newsom (14%) and Harris (2%).
A POLITICO–Citrin Center–Possibility Lab poll finds California Democrats prefer Gov. Gavin Newsom (25%) over Kamala Harris (19%) in a 2028 primary, while policy influencers lean toward Pete Buttigieg (19%).
Table comparing voter excitement for 2028 runs by Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. Among California Democrats, 42% are excited about Harris and 49% about Newsom. Among policy influencers, only 16% are excited about Harris and 39% about Newsom.
Poll shows more California Democrats are excited about a potential 2028 run by Newsom (49%) than Harris (42%). Policy influencers show even greater preference for Newsom (39% excited vs. 16% for Harris).

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