Four years after sexual misconduct allegations led Andrew Cuomo to resign as New York governor, the combative political veteran is expected to take a big step forward in his comeback bid by winning the primary to determine the Democratic candidate for New York City mayor in the November election.

Cuomo, who served 10 years as governor before stepping down in 2021, has a narrow lead in the latest poll released on Monday, facing a spirited challenge from 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani, a relatively unknown state lawmaker who has pulled away from 10 others in a crowded field of candidates.

With voting ending on Tuesday, the two frontrunners present a clear choice: Cuomo, an experienced moderate backed by the establishment, or Mamdani, a progressive newcomer who promises a break with the past.

Coming months after President Donald Trump began rolling out his sweeping agenda, the result will offer an early reading on the direction Democrats believe the party should take in countering Trump on the national stage.

“The outcome of this race could show whether NYC voters feel that more centrist policies … or a broader socio-political movement is the path forward for Democrats nationally,” Basil Smikle, a political analyst and professor at Columbia University’s School of Professional Studies, told Reuters.

If Cuomo prevails, it will also suggest voters are willing to forgive or at least forget misconduct accusations that the former governor has long denied, as well as allegations that he misled the public during the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.

It may take weeks to determine the winner due to a complicated ranked-choice system for counting votes. Either way, the victor will become the favorite to take the general election in a city where Democrats dominate.

The current mayor, Eric Adams, will also appear on the November ballot, but a series of corruption scandals and his perceived ties to Trump have weakened his standing. The Republican candidate is Curtis Sliwa, a radio host best known as the founder of the Guardian Angels anti-crime patrol.

The 67-year-old Cuomo, whose father served three terms as governor in the 1980s and 1990s, has attacked Mamdani for his relative lack of experience, both in confronting Trump and dealing with the issues of crime, housing and infrastructure.

“He has never done any of the essentials, and now you have Donald Trump on top of all of that,” Cuomo said at a debate earlier this month. “He has never dealt with what I think is the greatest national threat that we face.”

Cuomo, who emerged as a vocal critic of Trump during his first term as president, has won the endorsements of former President Bill Clinton and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire who poured $8.3 million into a political action committee that supports the former governor. Despite their differences in the past, Bloomberg said Cuomo is the right person to protect New York from the impact of Trump’s policies.

Self-Described Democratic Socialist

Born in Uganda to a family of Indian descent, Mamdani, a Muslim, has a history of pro-Palestinian activism. He was elected to a state assembly seat in New York’s Queens borough only four years ago.

A self-described democratic socialist, Mamdani has garnered the support of U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, two of the country’s most prominent progressives.

“We need new leadership that is prepared to stand up to powerful corporate interests and fight for the working class,” Sanders posted on X.

Burnishing his grassroots credentials, he has received more small donations than any candidate for New York City mayor in the past three decades and more than twice as many as Cuomo and Adams combined.

Cuomo has more individual donors among retired New Yorkers and residents in some expensive Manhattan neighborhoods, a database of donors on the New York City Campaign Finance Board website shows.

Mamdani’s support surged to 32% in a June 18-20 poll conducted by Emerson College, up from just 1% in February. He remains behind Cuomo, who held steady at around 35%. But Mamdani wins 52% to 48% in round 8 of the ranked-choice voting simulation, the pollster said.

In a June 9-12 reading by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, Cuomo stood at 43% versus Mamdani’s 31%, which gave him a 55% to 45% victory in the seventh round of voting.

The ranked-choice system allows voters to pick candidates in order of preference. In each round, candidates who trail are eliminated, and their votes are redistributed to the second choice marked on the ballots of their supporters. The process is repeated until one candidate achieves 50% of the total.

The system could give the biggest boost to Mamdani, who cross-endorsed Brad Lander, the New York City comptroller who is polling around 10%. Both progressives urged their supporters to rank the other as second choice.

An outspoken opponent of Trump’s immigration crackdown, Lander caught the public’s eye last week when he was briefly detained while escorting a defendant out of an immigration court.

Mamdani has sought to counter the criticism over his relative lack of experience by portraying Cuomo as an old-school has-been with stale ideas for running the city.

To further highlight the differences between him and the former governor, Mamdani has also taken aim at Cuomo for the allegations of sexual impropriety.

While accepting “full responsibility,” Cuomo has denied wrongdoing for what he characterized as ill-conceived attempts to be affectionate or humorous.

At the debate, Mamdani sounded unsympathetic.

“I have never had to resign in disgrace,” Mamdani said as the audience cheered. “Because I’m not you, Mr. Cuomo.”

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(Reporting by Maria Tsvetkova in New York; Editing by Frank McGurty and Daniel Wallis)