Could Florida and Texas Go Blue? New Poll Says It's Possible

By Anthony W. Haddad

Published 4 months ago on

September 8, 2024

A new Emerson College poll shows a tight presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris in Florida and Texas, with Trump holding narrow leads in both states. (GV Wire Composite/Anthony W. Haddad)

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The presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris remains tight in both Florida and Texas, according to a poll released Friday by Emerson College Polling and The Hill.

In Florida, Trump holds a narrow 5-point lead over Harris, 50% to 45%, while in Texas, he leads by 4 points, 50% to 46%. These results align with recent polls showing a close contest in both states.

Polling in Texas and Florida has been sparse since Harris secured the Democratic nomination, but the latest numbers suggest either state could be competitive. Trump carried both states in his previous presidential runs, though Democrats have expressed hopes of flipping Texas after years of Republican dominance.

The Hill’s forecast model gives Trump an 83% chance of winning Texas and a 75% chance of winning Florida. Still, Florida is only rated as “lean Republican,” and some surveys show Trump leading by single digits in both states.

A gender gap persists in both regions. Trump leads among Texas men by 18 points and Florida men by 12 points. Meanwhile, Harris holds an advantage among women, leading by 8 points in Texas and 2 points in Florida.

The poll surveyed likely voters in Florida and Texas between Sept. 3-5, with margins of error of 3.4 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively.

Read more about the poll at The Hill.

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Anthony W. Haddad,

Multimedia Journalist

Anthony W. Haddad, who graduated from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo with his undergraduate degree and has an MBA at Fresno State, is the Swiss Army knife of GV Wire. He writes stories, manages social media, and represents the organization on the ground.