There never was much of a chance that California Gov. Gavin Newsom would be running for president this year, even if President Joe Biden were to step aside.

Dan Walters

CalMatters

Opinion

While Newsom has been doing all of the usual things that earn a place on political media lists of potential candidates, he has seemed to be looking ahead to 2028 if, indeed, he harbors such ambitions despite his many denials.

However, now that Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually certain to be the Democratic nominee this year, even a 2028 Newsom run is less likely since she, if elected, likely would seek a second term in the White House. Newsom’s only opportunity, if he yearns to be president, hinges on Harris losing to former President Donald Trump.

Game of Political Musical Chairs Developing Over Newsom’s Successor

Meanwhile, a game of political musical chairs is developing in California over who might succeed Newsom as governor two years hence.

The field of serious Democratic hopefuls increased to five Tuesday when Antonio Villaraigosa, a former speaker of the state Assembly and mayor of Los Angeles, declared his candidacy in a YouTube video, describing himself as a “problem solver to lead this state.”

Toni Atkins, former president pro tempore of the state Senate; Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis; state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond and former state Controller Betty Yee had already declared.

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More would-be governors are waiting in the wings.

Attorney General Rob Bonta is very likely to make the run, and his predecessor, Xavier Becerra, now a Biden administration official, is at least exploring the possibility. Others on the informal lists of possible candidates include LA Mayor Karen Bass, a former member of Congress and one-time speaker of the state Assembly; U.S. Sen. Laphonza Butler, who is serving the remainder of the late Dianne Feinstein’s term; and Katie Porter, an Orange County member of Congress who lost a bid for the U.S. Senate this year.

While there’s no obvious frontrunner among the declared and potential candidates, neither are they all equally viable.

Kounalakis’ Wealth and Bonta’s Influence Provide Advantages

Kounalakis’ family wealth — her father is developer Angelo Tsakopoulos — was quite evident in her successful campaign for lieutenant governor and gives her an obvious advantage in the all-important money race.

Bonta’s advantage, should he run, is that he occupies California’s second most influential political office, which has been the springboard for several previous governors. Scarcely a day passes without at least one news release from Bonta’s office touting some accomplishment.

Villaraigosa, who lost to Newsom in a 2018 duel for the governorship, brings name identification to the game and is the only declared Latino candidate. However, while Villaraigosa got his start in politics as a union organizer, his battles with the teachers’ union as LA mayor damaged his 2018 bid for governor.

What about Republicans? While it would be virtually impossible for a Republican to be elected governor in this deeply blue state, the presence of a Republican on the primary ballot could affect what happens to the Democratic candidates.

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We saw that in March’s top-two primary election when three Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate were vying for a spot on the November ballot. The winner, Congressman Adam Schiff, spent millions of dollars attacking the Republican candidate, former baseball player Steve Garvey, with the obvious — and successful — aim of helping Garvey finish second. It protected Schiff from having to face his chief Democratic foe, Katie Porter, in November.

So far the only declared Republican candidate for governor with any traction is Leo Zacky, president of Zacky Farms, a major poultry producer. However, it’s possible that Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, might jump into the fray.

About the Author

Dan Walters has been a journalist for nearly 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He began his professional career in 1960, at age 16, at the Humboldt Times.

CalMatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more columns by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.

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