Barring a big rally by John Cox, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom will become the next governor of California.
A Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday night shows Newsom holding an 11-point lead over Cox among likely voters in the race to succeed Jerry Brown.
Newsom, a Democrat, leads Cox, a Republican, 49 percent to 38 percent, with 10 percent undecided, according to the nonpartisan poll.
The Cox campaign, however, still clings to hopes of pulling an upset.
“Gavin Newsom is dropping and now below 50 percent despite spending over $10 million,” said Cox campaign manager Tim Rosales.
“The trend in these polls shows that Californians are realizing that it’s time for a change.”
Gas Tax Repeal, Rent Control Trail
Other highlights from the PPIC poll heading into the Nov. 6 election:
— Proposition 6, the gas tax repeal, is opposed by 48 percent of likely voters. Forty-one percent favor the repeal of fuel taxes and license fees enacted by the Legislature last year. Eleven percent are undecided.
— Proposition 10, which would expand the ability of local governments to enact rent control, appears headed to defeat. Sixty percent of likely voters say they will vote “no,” 25 percent say they support it, and 15 percent are undecided.
“While most say that housing affordability is a problem, Proposition 10 trails,” said PPIC president and CEO Mark Baldassare.
— Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking her fifth term, leads fellow Democrat Kevin de León 43 percent to 27 percent. Notable is that 51 percent of Republicans and 22 percent of independents say that they will not vote in this race.
— Across California, 68% of likely Democratic likely voters say they are very or extremely enthusiastic about this election. That compares with 45 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independents.
— If the election for the House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (55%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate. Thirty-seven percent say they would vote for or lean toward the Republican. Partisan likely voters support the candidate from their own party while independents are divided.
— Asked about the U.S. Senate’s vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court, a majority of likely voters (56%) disapprove.
— 65 percent of likely voters oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico.
Other Gubernatorial Polls
A compilation of polls by RealClearPolitics from mid-September to mid-October shows Newsom leading Cox 52 percent to 36 percent.
Survey-USA shows Newsom ahead 52 percent to 35 percent. While Cox is narrowly winning the Central Valley and Inland Empire, Newsom leads by 18 points in greater Los Angeles and 47 points in the Bay Area.
A KFI/NBC statewide poll released the week of Oct. 14 shows Newsom with an eight-point lead, 51 percent to Cox’s 43 percent.
A USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released Oct. 17 put Newsom’s lead at 23 points (54-31).
GV Wire Voter Guide
Read about statewide and local candidates, as well as the state ballot propositions and local measures, at GV Wire’s Voter Guide.