Published
5 years agoon
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Drew PhelpsOn Wednesday, Amanda Renteria, the 2014 Democratic challenger to Congressman David Valadao, filed to run for office again, this time for governor.
The announcement came as a surprise given the fact that Renteria had seemingly not yet established a campaign framework, lacking even a campaign website at the time of her filing.
Though the level of support she will draw is yet to be seen, the candidates who stand to lose the most from her entry are former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former State Superintendent of Schools Delaine Eastin.
Renteria stands to damage Villaraigosa’s chances most significantly in her native Central Valley and among Latino voters.
Conversely, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom likely stands to gain, as well as the Republican candidates, though likely to a lesser extent.
The returns Newsom may see are not a direct gain, but the result of the losses Renteria’s candidacy will pose for other candidates, primarily Villaraigosa.
A recent PPIC poll placed Newsom and Villaraigosa in a statistical dead heat, so any support that can be siphoned away from Villaraigosa is a boon for Newsom.
The Republicans in the race have less to gain, given their low levels of support, but Renteria’s candidacy could help dilute the Democratic field enough to allow one of them to sneak through to the general election.
However, the Republican field is also fairly diluted, with three candidates dividing a limited voter base. If three Republican candidates remain in June, it is unlikely that one of them will garner enough support to advance.
Though it is unlikely that Renteria will have much impact in this race, the fact that she could play an important role in assisting Newsom’s chances has raised questions of collusion between the two.
Mike Madrid, a longtime political analyst and current Villaraigosa adviser, proposed some tentative theories on KQED’s Political Breakdown podcast Thursday night.
“Amanda Renteria is an accomplished person in her own right, with an extraordinary resume,” Madrid said, “but something just doesn’t smell right with what happened.”
“We know something else is afoot,” he continued, “You don’t run for office and file 30 days out [before the filing deadline] with no endorsement, no infrastructure and no campaign website.”
Madrid posits that observers should pay attention to who supports her financially.
“Follow the money,” he said, “If you start to see Gavin Newsom money, independent money start, you’re really going to know something is wrong. It’s part of the larger divide-and-suppress strategy of the Latino vote.”
Renteria’s candidacy caught state Democratic officials by surprise.
California Democratic Party Chairman Eric Bauman told The Sacramento Bee that Renteria won’t have a speaking slot at the party’s convention this month in San Diego: “The convention program is done. I couldn’t even squeeze in two minutes.”
Whether or not a ploy by the Newsom camp, it will be interesting to see how much traction Renteria gets in this race and, as a result, how much support she funnels from Villaraigosa.
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